Thursday, April 29, 2010

Eurozone House of cards looks shaky

So on the back of the Greek tragedy comes the credit rating downgrades for Spain and Portugal, amid concerns for the remaining PIIGS of Ireland and Italy.

The thing is, you just get the feeling that once these things start, it just carries on and on and will cause a huge problem in the eurozone.

With any luck the UK won't get dragged into it as we are outside the euro zone, but there is a lot of debt, and if the markets decide to focus on the UK we may find ourselves in the shit.

Although coming out of recession there are good indicators of things imrpoving in the UK, so after the election is sorted we may see some benefits to sterling, as the UK may be seen as a safe haven for currency investors, rather than the euro.

The strength of the eurozone is clearly that it is made up a a number of nations and a variety of economies. The problem is that all these countries are still governed independently so there is a lot of politics involved when northern economies like Germany have to bail out perceived lazy "Club Med" Europeans in Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal etc.

From a Brit perspective I think the Euribor has to remain low in the eurozone, and surely the Spanish banks can't start charging huge margins on their mortgages. For any Brits with mortgages overseas, particularly in euros, then a rise in the strength of the pound might be a silver lining in terms of mortgage costs, and also may help the Spanish property market as property that has fallen in value may seem even cheaper to British buyers

Thanks for reading

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